Statistical modeling and prediction of the behavior of a buttress block at the Itaipu Dam
International Journal of Development Research
Statistical modeling and prediction of the behavior of a buttress block at the Itaipu Dam
Received 10th September, 2021; Received in revised form 18th October, 2021; Accepted 24th November, 2021; Published online 28th December, 2021
Copyright © 2021, Sheila R. Oro et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
In this paper, the data from piezometers, extensometer bases, plumblines and multiple-rod extensometers, used in the monitoring of a buttresses block of the Itaipu Dam, were treated and analyzed using a set of models and statistical techniques, with the objective of obtaining a statistical index that represents the global behavior of the block's responses, in relation to the oscillations in the environmental conditions of its surroundings. The joint monitoring index of the dam block responses was constructed based on the five factors identified through factor analysis, which together explained about 85% of the variability. The forecasts of the values of this index for the 48-month horizon were obtained through dynamic linear models, having as regressors the water level in the reservoir and the air temperature around the dam, considering the lags in relation to the dependent variable. The adjusted model passed all specification and adequacy tests, demonstrating a high quality of estimates (adjusted R² = 0.87) and good accuracy (RMSE = 0.22). The index proposed in this study can be used in real-time monitoring of the dam and assist in the decision-making process.
