Prediction the daily number of confirmed cases of covid-19 in Sudan with arima and holt winter exponential smoothing

International Journal of Development Research

Volume: 
10
Article ID: 
19811
6 pages
Research Article

Prediction the daily number of confirmed cases of covid-19 in Sudan with arima and holt winter exponential smoothing

Fath ELrhman Elsmih, Abdelaziz, G. M. M, Salemalzahrani and Ashaikh A.A. shokeralla

Abstract: 

This paper compares the performance of ARIMA and Holt linear exponential smoothing models in the perdition of covid-19 confirmed cases in Sudan, daily readings of Covid-2019 confirmed cases data covered the period 24th March 2020 until 10th June 2020 obtained from federal ministry of health- Sudan are used in the analysis of this paper.ARIMA and Holt linear exponential smoothing models were applied to the data, the empirical analysis results indicated that the ARIM(2, 1,2) is an appropriate to represents ARIMA model. ARIM(2,1,2) as well as Holt linear exponential smoothing models are compared through examining the goodness of fit of each model using certain criteria. Based on AIC and BIC accuracy measurementsthe ARIMA model was chosen as an appropriate model rather than Holt exponential smoothing models, this finding suggests that ARIMA is highly recommended.

DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.37118/ijdr.19811.08.2020
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