Relationship between the number of dengue cases, temperature and precipitation in the city of Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul
International Journal of Development Research
Relationship between the number of dengue cases, temperature and precipitation in the city of Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul
Received 20th April, 2021; Received in revised form 16th May, 2021; Accepted 02nd June, 2021; Published online 25th July, 2021
Copyright © 2021, Alessandra Querino da Silva et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Introduction: Climatic variables are important factors in the reproduction of the mosquito Aedes aegypti, which is the main vector in the dissemination of dengue. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the climatic variables, temperature, and precipitation, and the number of dengue cases in the city of Dourados–MS from 2007 to 2019. Methods: Generalized linear mixed-Poisson models were used in this study. Three models were proposed, and using Akaike, Bayesian, and deviance information criteria, the model that had the best fit with the data was selected. Results: The model selected was the one that considered temperature and precipitation as the variables. In this model, an average temperature increase of 1°C led to 1.57 increase of dengue cases, while precipitation increase of 1 mm led to 1.21 increase in cases. Conclusions: Temperature and precipitation can be predictors of the number of dengue cases in Dourados, and the information obtained in this study can be important to support the development and implementation of public policies for the control of the disease vector.
