The future of the applied research environment in Brazil: a foresight analysis

This Paper aims to identify, describe and analyze possible future scenarios for the applied research environment in Brazil using Foresight Management methods. It also seeks to identify the main factors influencing this environment and to explore the evolution of these factors to outline strategies for action in each of these scenarios. For this analysis, we used the Scenario Thinking Technique, which consists of detecting influential uncertainty factors and using them to create and compare possible future scenarios. Through the analysis of the research environment in Brazil, we identified two megatrends with a high degree of impact and uncertainty: state participation in R&D and companies’ interest in R&D. The combination of the possible variations of these megatrends allowed us to draw four scenarios for the future, which were named “Spoiled Baby”, “Supernova”, “Cash Cow” and “Pineapple”. The knowledge and analysis of these possible scenarios will allow better preparation for the challenges that the future will bring to this environment.