Dynamic macro-economic variables and its impact on gold price innovation in India

Dr. Srithar, P., Mariselvam, G. and Bairavi, N.

According to the World Gold Council, in the last decade, 75% of gold demand in India has taken the form of jewellery. The demand of gold moving towards uphill when the purchasing power of the consumer increases, which forces gold price up. The price of the god increases not only because of its demand. There are various factors that influence the fluctuations in gold price. The present study considers certain macro-economic variables and identifies the relationship of those variables with the gold price and its impact. The study took gold demand, nifty, foreign exchange rate, inflation, gross domestic product, crude oil price as independent variables whereas gold prices as dependent variable. Correlation and multiple regression model have been used as research tools by the researchers. The result reveals that there exists significant positive relationship between gold price and inflation, gross domestic product, nifty, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate. The moderate relationship exists between gold price and demand of the gold which is not significant one. Multiple regression analysis reveals that inflation and nifty have negative impact on gold price fluctuations whereas gross domestic product and crude oil price have positive impact on gold price. Since gold demand and foreign exchange rate result does not reach the significant level in this study, the result concludes that those variables do not have impact on gold price.

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